Last night's Tory victory in Crewe and Nantwich was amazing - 26yrs since the last Tory by-election victory & with a 17% swing!!
That would leave a Conservative majority after the next election of over 300!!! Everyone seems very quick to write off Labour & say that Gay Gordo is a dead duck. Maybe. I truly hope so.
But - Thatcher got slaughtered in by-elections & then stormed to victory in '83 after the Falklands ('"events dear boy, events"). Major routinely got battered in by-elections but scrapped a win in '92.
The best thing that can happen is that Brown hangs on to the Labour leadership & stays PM. He then goes down to an almighty defeat at the next general election. The Labour movement will then lurch to the left under some barmy Michael Foot/IDS style disaster & stay out of government for at least a decade.
Hopefully cue Cameron reeking creative destruction on the bloated debt laden state & public sector.
If I were Cameron I'd be courting the New Labourite MPs. They have very little in common with the Labour Left. Splitting the Labour party & having MPs cross the floor would be the best way to ensure the Conservatives dominate 21st Century politics as the party did for the 20th.
We just need a big issue to get them to walk after the next GE - think the Liberal Unionists of the 1880s.
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