Talking to Russia: Medvedev, Putin and waking up the Russian bear

Recent moves by Britain and the US to normalise relations with Russia are an interesting developing in the strategy for dealing with Moscow.  The very public execution of Litvinenko in London, the Georgian conflict of 2008, support for Iranian nuclear ambitions and the continuing manoeuvres surrounding NATO's eastward expansion all provide the back-drop to the poor state of diplomatic relations.

It is right and proper that the UK expressed serious anger over the execution of a dissident in the middle of London - that was pretty outrageous.  Similarly the Georgian conflict was little more than old Soviet style Russian power-politics.  These issues, combined with the anti-democracy legislation and return to autocratic ways led to the deep-freeze in relations during '08-'10.

Thankfully, Realpolitik has settled back in place.  Western Europe needs Russia.  We need Russian natural gas & oil.  As the Russians showed in their dispute with the Ukraine, they can simply turn off the tap if they want to play hardball.  For a net energy importer such as the UK relations with Russia are critical - this is made manifestly worse by the retarded focus on renewable energy which doesn't work (wind power anyone) instead of building the unpalatable but necessary new nuclear power infrastructure.  We need to hug the Russian bear close however unpleasant the smell.

Europeans and Americans generally don't get the Russian mentality.  After doing business there over the last couple of years I have been surprised and intrigued by the Russian way of doing things.  They are totally paranoid - about the state, about competitors, and of course about the seemingly expansionist & encircling ambitions of NATO up to their borders.  Quite rightly Russians fear the Putin mafia who confiscate businesses & arrest economic and political opponents at will - democracy & the rule of law are at best a mirage in Moscow. 

All this is tempered by a fantastic and very 'British' sense of humour - there is no business dinner I look forward to as much one with Muscovites holding court with their well aimed sarcasm, wit and stories, all fuelled by industrial quantities of vodka.

We need the natural resources of Russia.  We also need their influence in controlling Iran and other rogue states.  They have no truck with Islamist fundamentalists and are a key ally for supply routes to the Af-Pak conflict.  Russia needs technology and finance from the West.  More than this they need re-assurance that NATO is not encircling them with approaches to the Ukraine & other ex-Soviet states.  The idea that we could attach conditions on democracy & human rights to any diplomatic deals is naive at best.

We must hug the Russians close - a healthy dose of Realpolitik must win out.  Putin may be little more than a return to autocracy but the Russian empire is part of the solution to many of the key global problems we face.